🔗 Share this article An Warning to Keir Starmer from His Own History: Without Boldness on Britain's EU Exit & the EU, Your Party Challengers Will Be. Back in 2018, it took just eight words to energize a Labour conference and to show the party was falling out of love with Jeremy Corbyn. Although not exactly soaring oratory, the words met with wild cheering as most of the hall stood for an impromptu ovation. When the noise subsided, Keir Starmer, remained at the lectern, visibly startled. He was unaccustomed to his speeches having such an effect. His statement was simply: "We are not excluding staying in the EU". Context, however, is key. In that darkly divisive time of 2018, straying from his agreed text like this was always going to be seen as issuing a challenge to the party leader, who was trying to prioritise leave supporters in working-class seats above the Europhile sentiments within Labour. With that single address, this grey-suited opposition Brexit spokesman underwent a transformation – albeit temporarily – into a political gambler who would stand up for most Labour MPs, members and voters against the leadership he later succeeded. The Evolution in Position and Settled Issues Since then, the landscape has shifted, especially for Starmer himself. An early move upon assuming leadership from Corbyn in 2020 was declaring the Brexit issue had been settled by the 2019 general election. During the most recent campaign, he repeatedly emphasised manifesto “red line” promises that ruled out re-entry into the European Union or its core structures. Similar to Corbyn, his strategy has been to pursue pro-Leave voters in target constituencies, even if survey data suggests a significant number have passed away or shifted opinion. Pressure Building on Europe However, it’s now Starmer is now to face the pressures of being a party leader. While EU relations may not be the boiling pot of British politics, a lid which was tightly sealed for five years is beginning to rattle once more. Both Starmer and Rachel Reeves have intensified the rhetoric about the devastation that leaving the EU has caused to Britain's economic standing. It’s a useful stick with which to beat the Reform UK leader, who now rarely mentions his flagship policy was his primary goal and is still his sole political accomplishment. Nevertheless, the extent of the economic harm, reportedly has left Britain with a national economy that is between 6% and 8% smaller than if it were still in the EU, towers over the micro-mitigation thus far implemented by the government. Starmer’s so-called relationship reset negotiated with the EU in 2024 provides gains quantified in fractions of a percent. Internal Pressure & Bolder Ideas The chancellor is one of those trying to overcome entrenched Home Office resistance to an expansive version designed to boost growth youth mobility scheme by which young people can move between the UK and the EU to study or work. David Lammy has pondered publicly regarding the “self-evident” benefits of being in a customs union with the EU, while a dozen Labour MPs, such as the head of the Treasury select committee, recently voted for a Liberal Democrat motion on joining one. While the Europe minister, who oversees UK-EU relations, now present at every cabinet meeting, insists the red lines are still in place, there are ways these could be bypassed. A proposal involves announce the start of talks immediately for a more ambitious agreement, to be featured in the next manifesto, to be enacted only after Labour won a new electoral mandate. Starmer's Fundamental Scepticism Yet, Starmer has most recently damping it all down on the idea cautioning that rejoining a European customs area would “unravel” the trade pacts with America, which he views as signature achievements of his government. It is understood that the PM’s scepticism run even deeper, and is rooted in several key concerns. First, he believes any customs union agreement is now significantly more difficult because his ministers actively diverging from EU regulations in numerous sectors, like environmental standards. Secondly, the prohibitive cost demanded from Britain to join the EU’s new defence fund and the ensuing failure in talks has convinced UK negotiators that former EU partners are less interested in cutting special deals to the UK than in proving that Brexit does not work. Thirdly, the new US national security strategy, praised by Moscow, is viewed by key advisors in Downing Street as grounds for Britain to maintain distance from the EU. A Bizarre Strategy and Strategic Considerations This bizarre and terrifying American strategy paper asserts Europe is threatened by cultural extinction because of Muslim migration. It includes a single mention of the UK, found on a proposal that Donald Trump’s administration may interfere in British politics to foster the growth of nationalist movements. But, far from deciding that this renders America an unreliable partner, the government reportedly fear that aligning closer with Europe could upset the global balance by endangering fragile US military support for Ukraine, Nato and much more besides. Succession Chatter and The Ghost of 2018 All of which brings us back to 2018. The PM has consistently stated his speech was not an attempt for the leadership but simply an attempt to preserve the possibility of remain being on the ballot paper. In fact, in those days, he still supported a “bespoke customs union deal” of the kind he now appears to be opposing. Observers within the Prime Minister's office have noticed that the Health Secretary, widely considered would be a candidate in any leadership election, is part of a group of senior ministers signaling they desire greater ambition on Europe. Staff for the Deputy Prime Minister, another probable runner in a future race for the top job, insist she won’t discuss her position on a customs union because it would only “escalate unhelpful speculation”. The Obvious Risk and A Prudent Memory The risk is clear. If Starmer rules out significant moves towards EU alignment, he allows rivals to occupy the space where the overwhelming majority of Labour MPs, members and voters are to be found. It would be prudent for Starmer to recall the effect just a few words had for him seven years ago. There are options for a major proposal on EU relations that the prime minister should not “rule out”; he should explore them himself, rather than letting rivals makes them his – or her – own.